The Celtics will look to extend their winning streak to six games when they host the Nets in the second leg of a home-and-home series.
It’ll be a quick turnaround for both teams, as they’ll meet for the second time in 24 hours.
Boston won Tuesday’s meeting, 118-110, resulting in a push with a consensus spread of eight points.
Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis missed the game due to a lower back contusion and will be a game-time decision Wednesday night.
As for the Nets, Ben Simmons has already been ruled out due to load management, but Cameron Johnson should return after missing four games with a groin injury.
Given the injury report and venue change, the bookmakers opened Boston as a 13.5-point favorite. However, after facing the Nets on Tuesday, winning this game by margin might be a bit too much to ask.
Nets vs. Celtics odds
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Nets +13.5 (-110) | Over 228.5 (-112) | -900 |
| Celtics -13.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-108) | +650 |
Nets analysis
At 21-32, Brooklyn trails Atlanta by 2.5 games for the final play-in tournament seed.
The Nets seem to have already punted on the season after trading away Spencer Dinwiddie and Royce O’Neale before the deadline.
However, there’s still some decent talent on this team, with Mikal Bridges (21.9 points per game), Cam Thomas (21.5) and Johnson (13.9) being their top three scorers.
If we compare Brooklyn to Atlanta, the Nets actually have the better point differential (-1.3 vs. -2.2) despite trailing the Hawks in the conference standings.
And based on points scored and points allowed, the Nets should be closer to a 24-win team, according to ESPN’s Relative Percent Index.
While there’s no question Simmons provides a boost offensively, the numbers show that the Nets have been better defensively when Johnson plays.
Per Gimmethedog.com, Brooklyn allowed an average of 114.95 points with Johnson compared to 116.7 with Simmons. With the Nets catching double digits as underdogs, we just need them to do enough to keep this game inside the number.
Celtics analysis
Although the Celtics own the best record (42-12) in the league and the highest point differential (+9.4), they’re still somehow 24-27-3 against the spread (ATS). Boston’s ATS mark tells me that bettors are paying a premium to back the NBA’s best team.
During their five-game winning streak, the Celtics are just 1-3-1 ATS and over their previous 10 games, they’re 8-2 straight-up but 2-7-1 ATS.
It’s not as if Boston had to overcome a long and challenging road trip. Seven of its last 10 games were at TD Garden.
Betting on the NBA?
My intention isn’t to pour cold water on the Celtics. I’m merely illustrating that even a team as dominant as Boston can be overvalued by the market.
Moreover, it’s worth noting that the Celtics are 1-3 ATS in their last four home games after opening as double-digit favorites.
Nets vs. Celtics pick
Laying double digits is always a difficult task at the professional level, and our Action Labs database, which dates back to the 2005 season, shows that underdogs in this spot are up a whopping 75.65 units.
The Celtics are responsible for a good portion of those profits as double-digit dogs are 105-78-2 against them for 20.29 units.
Lastly, Killersports.com shows that double-digit dogs off a loss against the Celtics in a back-to-back spot are 3-0 against the spread.
Given that the familiarity of facing the same opponent could prove pivotal in this matchup, I’m inclined to take the points with the visitors at +13.5.
Pick: Nets +13.5 (-110, FanDuel) or better
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