Tony Romo’s days in Dallas have been numbered ever since Dak Prescott stepped so seamlessly into the role of Cowboys starting quarterback, and there is growing speculation Romo will be released rather than traded. The smart money is on Romo landing with either the Denver Broncos or Houston Texans — and he would be an upgrade for either team — but if he has a choice, Denver is the place for him to go.
Romo had it pretty good in Dallas. Since he was named the starter in 2006, the Cowboys have had six offensive linemen nominated to the Pro Bowl with three — left tackle Tyron Smith, center Travis Frederick and right guard Zack Martin — earning all-pro first team honors in their career. One of his running backs, DeMarco Murray, was named the 2014 Offensive Player of the Year after leading the league in rushing yards (1,845), yards from scrimmage (2,261) and rushing touchdowns (13). Two of his receivers topped the 1,300-yard mark, Terrell Owens in 2007 and Dez Bryant in 2014. Of the 24 tight ends with at least 500 targets, only one has a higher catch percentage than Jason Witten (71.1 percent).
Denver has none of that.
Its offensive line ranked 27th for sack rate after adjusting for down, distance and opponent (7.4 percent), allowing 208 sacks, hits and hurries last season, seventh-most in the NFL. The Broncos starting running back, C.J. Anderson required surgery for a torn meniscus in 2016 and was limited to seven starts. Receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders each caught five touchdowns and produced at least 1,000 yards but weren’t impressive to the game charters at Pro Football Focus, who had the team’s receiving corps ranked 19th last season. The Broncos most-targeted tight end, Virgil Green, had the fifth-highest drop rate at the position.
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But the Broncos do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and adding a quarterback like Romo immediately makes them a Super Bowl contender.
One of the most reliable indicators for predicting title contenders is passer rating differential — simply the difference between a team’s passer rating and the collective rating of the team’s opposing QBs. Its correlation to success led football stathead Kerry Byrne to dub it the “Mother of All Stats” during the 2012 Pro Football Researchers Association biennial meeting hosted by NFL Films. Over the past decade, 15 of the past 20 Super Bowl participants had a passer rating differential among the top 5 best in the league. The most recent, Super Bowl LI, featured the top two teams in the NFL for passer rating differential.
This makes complete sense. The NFL is a passing league, so success through the air while limiting opponents from doing the same is a recipe for victory.
The Broncos held opponents to a league-low 69.7 passer rating last season, allowing them to finish the regular season at No. 4 for passer rating differential despite a below-average 83.9 passer rating from their quarterbacks. Had Denver received just average performance (87.6 rating) from their passers they would have ranked third. With Romo’s career average (97.1) they would have been the best in the NFL, likely winning more than nine games and reaching the playoffs.
The Texans, meanwhile, have a capable running back in Lamar Miller and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is a threat to score any time he gets his hands on the football. But Pro Football Focus had Miller rated as the 19th best running back (out of 26 qualified rushers) and Hopkins as the 23rd best wideout (out of 83 qualified receivers), making them good, but not great. The offensive line was decent in 2016, allowing a better-than-average adjusted sack rate of 5.5 percent sack rate, yet quarterback Brock Osweiler produced a 72.2 passer rating in his first full year as a starter, leading to the 25th highest passer rating differential (minus-11). Injuries to J.J. Watt certainly hurt the defense’s ability to get to the passer, but with the exception of 2011, his rookie year, the Texans have allowed a passer rating of 80 or above, including 2012, 2014 and 2015, years in which Watt was named defensive player of the year. Denver has not allowed a passer rating above 80 in two straight seasons.
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If the Texans had average quarterback play last season they would have ranked 18th in passer rating differential, perhaps jumping to as high as sixth if Romo had one of his average seasons. But that would still put the team outside of the top 5 from which we typically see Super Bowl contenders. The Broncos are already in the top 5, and adding Romo would simply reduce their risk of falling out of one of those coveted slots.
While chasing a Super Bowl ring is a huge motivator for Romo, staying healthy has to be paramount. One bad hit and it won’t matter what team he’s on if he’s laid up for the season, as he was in 2016. That may at first argue for Houston’s better rated offensive line, but take a closer look: The protection offered by the Broncos and Texans offensive lines was relatively similar . Denver’s offensive front allowed its quarterbacks to be sacked or hit 51 times in 2016; the Texans allowed 57.
Romo was afforded more time to throw by the Cowboys offensive line in 2014 (2.84 seconds), his last full season, but he often didn’t need it. On throws within 2.5 seconds of the snap he completed 73.4 percent of his passes for a 113.6 passer rating. When he took 2.6 seconds or more he completed 66.8 percent of his passes for a 113.4 rating. In limited time during the 2015 season, Romo averaged 2.58 seconds per throw. That’s shorter than either Trevor Siemian (2.65) and Paxton Lynch (2.66) needed in Denver last year and also less time it took Brock Osweiler to throw (2.63) in Houston. Getting the ball out quicker will likely make either offensive line look a little better.
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Another argument for Houston is the benefit of playing in a dome at NRG Stadium. Romo has only played nine games in a dome during his career, but over the past five seasons the league’s average passer rating has been higher in a dome (92.2) than it is when playing outdoors (85.1). However, his personal career passer rating in arenas with retractable roofs, like AT&T Stadium, isn’t much different from when he is asked to play outdoors (97.6 vs. 96.1 outdoors), casting some doubt he would get much of a bump moving to Houston.
Instead, he should go with Denver and the better defense, because that’s the quickest way he can cap his career with a Super Bowl ring.
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